With the 2009 NBA Draft a mere 4 days away, I felt it was time to state some of my positions on players in the upcoming draft:
- Blake Griffin is easily the best player in this draft. Projections of Griffin as a young Antonio McDyess are spot on in terms of his offensive skill set and athleticism. I personally liken him right now as a hybrid of Nene and Amare Stoudamire - soft hands inside, good at working for inside position because he is so strong, always running down the floor, and always attacking the basket when he has the ball in his hands. That combination of size, physicality, athleticism, production, work ethic, and character are all that you want out of a young player and the Clippers would be foolish to deal their pick unless they get a superstar back. But then again, this is the Los Angeles Clippers, and if any team could screw up something so easy, it would be them.
- The most interesting spot in the draft with be the 2 spot and what the Memphis Grizzlies do with it. Most would like to believe that the pick should be between either Spanish-born point guard, Ricky Rubio, or UConn Center Hasheem Thabeet. However, I would like to argue that neither is a good fit for the Grizz and that they should instead choose the Arizona State product, James Harden.
First, why not Rubio? For starters, the Grizz already have a point guard to groom in Mike Conley, Jr. To draft Rubio essentially means that they have given up on Conley, who they drafted 2 years ago at the 4 spot and is still only 21 years old (will be 22 by the end of the year). Adding Rubio essentially casts Conley to the side and means a wasted pick was made.
Secondly, drafting Rubio will not result in any additional wins. He is a project if you draft him and it will take at least a year (I think maybe 2) for him to adjust to the NBA game and fill out physically (not to mention adjusting to the North American culture and English language). Add to the fact that he'll be playing the hardest position to learn in PG and you have yourself a player who will not yield immediate results. Harden is a polished scorer who, despite being a dud during the March tournament, was the 2nd best player in college basketball behind Griffin.
Third, and most importantly, if you want to upgrade your PG position, you do not have to look outside if youre the Memphis Grizzlies. Rather, you have a perfect solution to your point guard position if you believe that Mike Conley isnt the answer - that is OJ Mayo. Mayo, since high school, had played the PG position. At 6-5, he would have excellent size for the 1 spot. And offensively, he has great scoring ability to go with good vision on the court. Shift him to point guard, draft Harden as your shooting guard, couple those two with Rudy Gay at small/power forward with Marc Gasol at center and you have a young, exciting, athletic lineup to build for the future.
Now, why not Hasheem Thabeet? Its quite simple - hes too big. Now, being big in basketball isnt so much a problem than a blessing. However, playing the up and down style that Memphis plays, with their athletes in Gay and Mayo, one wonders how a 7-3 center will hold up for 82 games. Now, Thabeet did play a similar style for UConn, but 82 games is a big number and I'd be willing to bet dollars for doughnuts that he'd have trouble trying to sustain that pace. (NOTE: I do not think Thabeet will be a bust (Im actually quite high on the player), but on an up and down team, just beware that youre really going to hurt him in the long run.)
So really, my pick if Im the Grizz is Harden at the 2 (feel free to quote me on that).
- Put me on the Stephen Curry bandwagon, but place a little asterisk on my ticket since I think he needs to be placed in the right situation to succeed. If he finds himself on a team that is deliberate on offense/a team that is half-court oriented, Curry will encounter a number of growing pains. He'd be exposed more frequently on defense against stronger point guards in the league whether its off the dribble or in the post. Fans and coaches will become more frustrated with his performance and echoes of being a "bust" will slowly echo through NBA arenas.
HOWEVER, if Curry finds himself on a free flowing offense that gets up and down and creates transition opportunities, he will find his groove quickly in the NBA. Curry would be playing a similar style of basketball that he has played at Davidson, where as a PG, he was able to lead breaks and either take shots himself or find his teammates running down the floor.
Thats why, if Im a Knicks fan, the opportunity of drafting Curry has me salivating at the idea. Curry will need to develop into a point guard and (1) learn how to turn the ball over less while (2) develop the ability to know when to take shots and when to involve ones teammates - sorta like how Chauncey Billups developed as a point on offense - coming in as a shoot/score-first PG who has since become a great leader who knows when to get his teammates involved. Curry already has the clutch shooting ability and scoring sense that Billups has on offense, he just needs to learn the intricacies of playing point guard which comes with time. Under Mike D'Antoni, he'll get to learn under a coach who has been a point guard in the NBA and has coached good scoring PGs like Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa. In the end, I really believe if he goes to the Knicks, Curry could be the next Chauncey Billups or Mike Bibby on offense. Curry's basketball IQ, work ethic, and shot making ability make him one of the more intriguing picks in the draft and I see more boom than bust out of him.
- Just some general comments on players:
Players I like:
Tyreke Evans: Great Scorer, explosive, doesnt have a shot yet but that first step of his is NBA calibre
Earl Clark: Nice size for a small forward, good ball handling skills, and good production across the stat line
Jeff Teague: Another combo-guard whos trying to learn to play point like Curry, not as good a shooter but a much better player in terms of getting to the lane and scoring; the concern is how he develops his "drive and dish" point guard skill.
Jrue Holiday: Not a great scorer, but what he does on defense will make him a PG for a team
that wins at least a conference title. Sorta like a Derek Fisher-type of PG.
Dionte Christmas: Good spot shooter, knows how to defend his position, was a star in college and should carve out a spot as a fringe starter.
Dante Cunningham: Reminds a lot of Ryan Gomes but with a little more size. 13-8 career isnt bad for a 2nd rounder.
Jonny Flynn: I originally had him down as someone I was down on, but I have to rebut myself and say that if he finds himself on a team that will emphasize running and aggressive penetration (like the Kings who may take him at #4), then Im all for it. Despite his size, he's one of the stronger athletes in the draft and in that type of running system, he'll get to utilize his athleticism a lot on offense and in transition.
Players Im Down on:
Ty Lawson: More likely to become a career backup as a point guard than the starter he was in college at UNC....will be better on a team that plays a more open offense than a half court offense....fringe starter if anything.
Dajuan Blair: I actually like what Blair brings to the table (gritty, physical, defense, rebounding), the problem is with his arithmetic knees...may be out of the league within 10 years/never give you 82 games.
Darren Collison: Refer to Lawson...fringe starter but more of a defensive specialist ala Chris Duhon.
Austin Daye: 6-10, 190 pounds is just too frail. Definitely a project that youre looking to develop for a year or 2 physically (but he is an older sophomore at 21)...if he adds 20-25 pounds, he may be a Rashard Lewis clone but as it stands right now hes far from an NBA level player.
- The Happy Artist
Monday, June 22, 2009
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
NBA Finals Analysis and Prediction
Lakers v. Magic
The Overview
The Lakers/Magic Finals of '09 may not be as sexy as the Kobe-Bron Finals, but its still going to be a great one to watch.
In terms of how the Magic matchup with the Lakers, outside of Kobe, I think that they have an advantage at every other position on the court. At point, I take Alston over Fisher. Alston is old, but he still has a good first step and can penetrate the lane. Fisher has lost a bit on the defensive end and its shown since the Houston series with both Aaron Brooks and Chauncy Billups both scoring well and penetrating the lane against Fisher. I expect that if Fisher is not shooting the ball well, we'll see a lot of Farmar and Brown playing defense on Alston early and often.
With Hedo and Rashard, the Lakers are faced with the dilemna of who Ariza and Gasol will check on defense. Whoever Gasol is left defending, thats going to be a huge mismatch for the Lakers to deal with since both Hedo and Lewis will force Gasol out on the perimeter and ultimately out of his comfort zone inside. If he plays either too tight, he'll get blown by on the first step. If Gasol gives up too much room, both are capable of sticking that 3-ball and you only have to ask LeBron and Cleveland what happens when Orlando gets hot from outside.
Then on the inside, Dwight has the advantage against Bynum. Bynum's been shaky and unproductive in most games these playoffs and he'll need to be huge for the Lakers to have a shot in the Finals. Bynum needs to lean on Dwight and force him as far away from the basket when the ball enters the post so that Dwight needs to put the ball to the floor to get his shot inside. At the same time, Bynum needs to limit the offensive boards Dwight gets based on his strength and athleticism.
For the Lakers, they have the clear advantage at shooting guard with Kobe against Pietrus/Lee. The challenge for Orlando will be who they counter against Kobe when Pietrus gets into foul trouble. You would have to imagine that Pietrus gets the primary duty of defending Kobe, but who does Van Gundy go to when he gets into foul trouble. Lee is a mere rookie and far from a great defender while Anthony Johnson is undersized and will be eaten alive in the post. Me thinks that Hedo would be the one to take defensive responsibilities against Kobe, but we'll wait and see. Hedo's a capable defender but at the same time you dont want him to defend Kobe too much for fear of losing him to foul trouble as well.
How this series goes down?
I see this series going one of two ways:
1) If Kobe dominates the ball while getting production from Odom and/or Gasol, Lakers win the series in a romp (I say Lakers in 5). Gasol and Odom will be key for this series. Kobe will give you 35-40 points a night and Bynum will do his best but Dwight will still get you 25 and 20, so the difference maker will need to be (at least for the Lakers) Odom and Gasol. When either Gasol or Odom go for 20 and 10, the Lakers are just too much and always win. When they go 20 and 10, it usually means that either player is getting good inside position for their team and theyre making a lot of easy 8 footers inside the paint. It really opens up the perimeter and penetration game for the guards and once that team is confident on offense, they start to pick it up on defense. If Gasol and Odom show up in the series, the Magic have no shot at winning the title imo.
2) Orlando applies the same strategy that they did against Cleveland and win the Finals in 6 games (Orlando in 6). What do I mean by this? I think Orlando forces Kobe to beat them every night while trying to limit the production of everyone else. Like they did with LeBron and the Cavs, Orlando will force Kobe to become a scorer while limiting everyone else. That means allowing Kobe to score upwards of 50 points a night. Limit Kobe's ability to be a facilitator on offense and more of an individual scorer.
Remember: the "magic" numbers (no pun intended) for Gasol or Odom are 20 and 10. If Orlando can limit both guys to under those numbers it means that players like Ariza, Fisher, or Bynum need to be the 2nd fiddle on offense. It also means that Gasol and Odom are playing timid and not trying to look for their shots inside; it means that Dwight is imposing himself on both sides in the paint. If Orlando does this, they have a huge shot of pulling the upset especially if they continue to shoot the same way they did against Cleveland, and with their explosive scorers (Hedo, Pietrus, Rashard, and Alston), they give themselves that rock to go along with the slingshot.
The Decision
At the end of the day, as much as I like Orlando and want them to win, I think LA is playing too well to not take the Finals. Heres the thing, I think that if Orlando is going to win this series, a lot of things have to roll their way: Dwight needs to stay out of foul trouble (difficult when Kobe slashes to the net and/or Gasol is looking to be aggressive inside), their shooters need to continue to shoot the ball well from outside (not impossible, but at the same time harder with the pressure of the NBA Finals and the Lakers defense in your face), and they need to steal a game at Staples Center while holding home court (again, not impossible to do, but not betting against it). In the end, I think LA wins both their home games to start with Orlando winning game 3. Then game 4 goes to the wire with LA squeaking by and in game 5, LA wins game 5.
The key for Orlando is to split the first two games in LA. Thats going to be crucial since winning 3 straight at home will be too daunting a task for them to complete. If they split the series 1-1 going home to Orlando they have a better chance at winning the series since they'll have the next 3 at home. Split that series 2-1 and they'll have 2 shots at winning the title (albeit in LA).
Well, theres my pick: LA in 5...but hoping the Magic comes away with the Larry O'Brien trophy in 6 (or 7).
The Overview
The Lakers/Magic Finals of '09 may not be as sexy as the Kobe-Bron Finals, but its still going to be a great one to watch.
In terms of how the Magic matchup with the Lakers, outside of Kobe, I think that they have an advantage at every other position on the court. At point, I take Alston over Fisher. Alston is old, but he still has a good first step and can penetrate the lane. Fisher has lost a bit on the defensive end and its shown since the Houston series with both Aaron Brooks and Chauncy Billups both scoring well and penetrating the lane against Fisher. I expect that if Fisher is not shooting the ball well, we'll see a lot of Farmar and Brown playing defense on Alston early and often.
With Hedo and Rashard, the Lakers are faced with the dilemna of who Ariza and Gasol will check on defense. Whoever Gasol is left defending, thats going to be a huge mismatch for the Lakers to deal with since both Hedo and Lewis will force Gasol out on the perimeter and ultimately out of his comfort zone inside. If he plays either too tight, he'll get blown by on the first step. If Gasol gives up too much room, both are capable of sticking that 3-ball and you only have to ask LeBron and Cleveland what happens when Orlando gets hot from outside.
Then on the inside, Dwight has the advantage against Bynum. Bynum's been shaky and unproductive in most games these playoffs and he'll need to be huge for the Lakers to have a shot in the Finals. Bynum needs to lean on Dwight and force him as far away from the basket when the ball enters the post so that Dwight needs to put the ball to the floor to get his shot inside. At the same time, Bynum needs to limit the offensive boards Dwight gets based on his strength and athleticism.
For the Lakers, they have the clear advantage at shooting guard with Kobe against Pietrus/Lee. The challenge for Orlando will be who they counter against Kobe when Pietrus gets into foul trouble. You would have to imagine that Pietrus gets the primary duty of defending Kobe, but who does Van Gundy go to when he gets into foul trouble. Lee is a mere rookie and far from a great defender while Anthony Johnson is undersized and will be eaten alive in the post. Me thinks that Hedo would be the one to take defensive responsibilities against Kobe, but we'll wait and see. Hedo's a capable defender but at the same time you dont want him to defend Kobe too much for fear of losing him to foul trouble as well.
How this series goes down?
I see this series going one of two ways:
1) If Kobe dominates the ball while getting production from Odom and/or Gasol, Lakers win the series in a romp (I say Lakers in 5). Gasol and Odom will be key for this series. Kobe will give you 35-40 points a night and Bynum will do his best but Dwight will still get you 25 and 20, so the difference maker will need to be (at least for the Lakers) Odom and Gasol. When either Gasol or Odom go for 20 and 10, the Lakers are just too much and always win. When they go 20 and 10, it usually means that either player is getting good inside position for their team and theyre making a lot of easy 8 footers inside the paint. It really opens up the perimeter and penetration game for the guards and once that team is confident on offense, they start to pick it up on defense. If Gasol and Odom show up in the series, the Magic have no shot at winning the title imo.
2) Orlando applies the same strategy that they did against Cleveland and win the Finals in 6 games (Orlando in 6). What do I mean by this? I think Orlando forces Kobe to beat them every night while trying to limit the production of everyone else. Like they did with LeBron and the Cavs, Orlando will force Kobe to become a scorer while limiting everyone else. That means allowing Kobe to score upwards of 50 points a night. Limit Kobe's ability to be a facilitator on offense and more of an individual scorer.
Remember: the "magic" numbers (no pun intended) for Gasol or Odom are 20 and 10. If Orlando can limit both guys to under those numbers it means that players like Ariza, Fisher, or Bynum need to be the 2nd fiddle on offense. It also means that Gasol and Odom are playing timid and not trying to look for their shots inside; it means that Dwight is imposing himself on both sides in the paint. If Orlando does this, they have a huge shot of pulling the upset especially if they continue to shoot the same way they did against Cleveland, and with their explosive scorers (Hedo, Pietrus, Rashard, and Alston), they give themselves that rock to go along with the slingshot.
The Decision
At the end of the day, as much as I like Orlando and want them to win, I think LA is playing too well to not take the Finals. Heres the thing, I think that if Orlando is going to win this series, a lot of things have to roll their way: Dwight needs to stay out of foul trouble (difficult when Kobe slashes to the net and/or Gasol is looking to be aggressive inside), their shooters need to continue to shoot the ball well from outside (not impossible, but at the same time harder with the pressure of the NBA Finals and the Lakers defense in your face), and they need to steal a game at Staples Center while holding home court (again, not impossible to do, but not betting against it). In the end, I think LA wins both their home games to start with Orlando winning game 3. Then game 4 goes to the wire with LA squeaking by and in game 5, LA wins game 5.
The key for Orlando is to split the first two games in LA. Thats going to be crucial since winning 3 straight at home will be too daunting a task for them to complete. If they split the series 1-1 going home to Orlando they have a better chance at winning the series since they'll have the next 3 at home. Split that series 2-1 and they'll have 2 shots at winning the title (albeit in LA).
Well, theres my pick: LA in 5...but hoping the Magic comes away with the Larry O'Brien trophy in 6 (or 7).
Hello and Welcome!
Hello and Thanks for viewing/reading up on my blog!
Im doing this for several reasons, but primarily as a record of my views/opinions/analysis of the game of basketball (both on the collegiate and NBA levels). I'll be primarily giving my views on games that I see (usually Raptor games, but if I can catch games on TNT or ABC/ESPN, I'll talk about it too) and players/roster moves that teams should or shouldnt make (again Raptor-centric, but I'll put an opinion out on any team really).
Things about myself:
- Lifelong Raptor fan but a basketball fan since I was young.
- Favorite players right now:
Tim Duncan (the Big Fundamental - the most unhearalded superstar ever in the NBA)
Deron Williams (hes not Chris Paul but then again CP3 doesnt have the crossover that Deron does...)
- Favorites all time:
Charles Barkley (how could a man at 6-5 dominate among the trees of the NBA?...plus hes awesome on Inside the NBA)
Mark Price (the original Steve Nash except he played defense....just saying)
Reggie Miller (no man has taken more late game shots and made them than he has....Greg Anthony still has nightmares of him...)
Hakeem Olajuwon (greatest center of all-time....enough said)
Anyways, enough from me...hopefully you'll have a good time on here and we can just shoot the sh*t about anything on the greatest sport in the world...
Take Care,
The Happy Artist
PS: "Why call yourself 'The Happy Artist'?"
Well, my last name roughly translates in Spanish to The Happy Artist....If you can figure out what my last name is.....well then I hope good karma befallens onto you and your household....
Im doing this for several reasons, but primarily as a record of my views/opinions/analysis of the game of basketball (both on the collegiate and NBA levels). I'll be primarily giving my views on games that I see (usually Raptor games, but if I can catch games on TNT or ABC/ESPN, I'll talk about it too) and players/roster moves that teams should or shouldnt make (again Raptor-centric, but I'll put an opinion out on any team really).
Things about myself:
- Lifelong Raptor fan but a basketball fan since I was young.
- Favorite players right now:
Tim Duncan (the Big Fundamental - the most unhearalded superstar ever in the NBA)
Deron Williams (hes not Chris Paul but then again CP3 doesnt have the crossover that Deron does...)
- Favorites all time:
Charles Barkley (how could a man at 6-5 dominate among the trees of the NBA?...plus hes awesome on Inside the NBA)
Mark Price (the original Steve Nash except he played defense....just saying)
Reggie Miller (no man has taken more late game shots and made them than he has....Greg Anthony still has nightmares of him...)
Hakeem Olajuwon (greatest center of all-time....enough said)
Anyways, enough from me...hopefully you'll have a good time on here and we can just shoot the sh*t about anything on the greatest sport in the world...
Take Care,
The Happy Artist
PS: "Why call yourself 'The Happy Artist'?"
Well, my last name roughly translates in Spanish to The Happy Artist....If you can figure out what my last name is.....well then I hope good karma befallens onto you and your household....
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