NBA Finals Analysis and Prediction

Lakers v. Magic

The Overview

The Lakers/Magic Finals of '09 may not be as sexy as the Kobe-Bron Finals, but its still going to be a great one to watch.

In terms of how the Magic matchup with the Lakers, outside of Kobe, I think that they have an advantage at every other position on the court. At point, I take Alston over Fisher. Alston is old, but he still has a good first step and can penetrate the lane. Fisher has lost a bit on the defensive end and its shown since the Houston series with both Aaron Brooks and Chauncy Billups both scoring well and penetrating the lane against Fisher. I expect that if Fisher is not shooting the ball well, we'll see a lot of Farmar and Brown playing defense on Alston early and often.

With Hedo and Rashard, the Lakers are faced with the dilemna of who Ariza and Gasol will check on defense. Whoever Gasol is left defending, thats going to be a huge mismatch for the Lakers to deal with since both Hedo and Lewis will force Gasol out on the perimeter and ultimately out of his comfort zone inside. If he plays either too tight, he'll get blown by on the first step. If Gasol gives up too much room, both are capable of sticking that 3-ball and you only have to ask LeBron and Cleveland what happens when Orlando gets hot from outside.

Then on the inside, Dwight has the advantage against Bynum. Bynum's been shaky and unproductive in most games these playoffs and he'll need to be huge for the Lakers to have a shot in the Finals. Bynum needs to lean on Dwight and force him as far away from the basket when the ball enters the post so that Dwight needs to put the ball to the floor to get his shot inside. At the same time, Bynum needs to limit the offensive boards Dwight gets based on his strength and athleticism.

For the Lakers, they have the clear advantage at shooting guard with Kobe against Pietrus/Lee. The challenge for Orlando will be who they counter against Kobe when Pietrus gets into foul trouble. You would have to imagine that Pietrus gets the primary duty of defending Kobe, but who does Van Gundy go to when he gets into foul trouble. Lee is a mere rookie and far from a great defender while Anthony Johnson is undersized and will be eaten alive in the post. Me thinks that Hedo would be the one to take defensive responsibilities against Kobe, but we'll wait and see. Hedo's a capable defender but at the same time you dont want him to defend Kobe too much for fear of losing him to foul trouble as well.

How this series goes down?

I see this series going one of two ways:

1) If Kobe dominates the ball while getting production from Odom and/or Gasol, Lakers win the series in a romp (I say Lakers in 5). Gasol and Odom will be key for this series. Kobe will give you 35-40 points a night and Bynum will do his best but Dwight will still get you 25 and 20, so the difference maker will need to be (at least for the Lakers) Odom and Gasol. When either Gasol or Odom go for 20 and 10, the Lakers are just too much and always win. When they go 20 and 10, it usually means that either player is getting good inside position for their team and theyre making a lot of easy 8 footers inside the paint. It really opens up the perimeter and penetration game for the guards and once that team is confident on offense, they start to pick it up on defense. If Gasol and Odom show up in the series, the Magic have no shot at winning the title imo.

2) Orlando applies the same strategy that they did against Cleveland and win the Finals in 6 games (Orlando in 6). What do I mean by this? I think Orlando forces Kobe to beat them every night while trying to limit the production of everyone else. Like they did with LeBron and the Cavs, Orlando will force Kobe to become a scorer while limiting everyone else. That means allowing Kobe to score upwards of 50 points a night. Limit Kobe's ability to be a facilitator on offense and more of an individual scorer.

Remember: the "magic" numbers (no pun intended) for Gasol or Odom are 20 and 10. If Orlando can limit both guys to under those numbers it means that players like Ariza, Fisher, or Bynum need to be the 2nd fiddle on offense. It also means that Gasol and Odom are playing timid and not trying to look for their shots inside; it means that Dwight is imposing himself on both sides in the paint. If Orlando does this, they have a huge shot of pulling the upset especially if they continue to shoot the same way they did against Cleveland, and with their explosive scorers (Hedo, Pietrus, Rashard, and Alston), they give themselves that rock to go along with the slingshot.

The Decision

At the end of the day, as much as I like Orlando and want them to win, I think LA is playing too well to not take the Finals. Heres the thing, I think that if Orlando is going to win this series, a lot of things have to roll their way: Dwight needs to stay out of foul trouble (difficult when Kobe slashes to the net and/or Gasol is looking to be aggressive inside), their shooters need to continue to shoot the ball well from outside (not impossible, but at the same time harder with the pressure of the NBA Finals and the Lakers defense in your face), and they need to steal a game at Staples Center while holding home court (again, not impossible to do, but not betting against it). In the end, I think LA wins both their home games to start with Orlando winning game 3. Then game 4 goes to the wire with LA squeaking by and in game 5, LA wins game 5.

The key for Orlando is to split the first two games in LA. Thats going to be crucial since winning 3 straight at home will be too daunting a task for them to complete. If they split the series 1-1 going home to Orlando they have a better chance at winning the series since they'll have the next 3 at home. Split that series 2-1 and they'll have 2 shots at winning the title (albeit in LA).

Well, theres my pick: LA in 5...but hoping the Magic comes away with the Larry O'Brien trophy in 6 (or 7).