NBA Picks for March 16

.....

Disappointing. Absolutely gutted. 0-3 last night against the spread. Dont know what else to say. Shows over folks. Turn out the lights, the party's over.












Naw, just being melodramatic. But in all seriousness, a little disappointed in the way my picks went. But, cant fret over it too much. Time to get back on the horse and pick some winners. Here they be!

Charlotte -2 vs Indiana ==> Give me the Bobcats on the road
Cleveland -9.5 vs Detroit ==> Give me the Cavs on the road by double digits
LA Lakers -6 vs Sacramento ==> Give me the Lakers on the road

3 Games. 3 road favorites picked. Yes, a tad bit risky, but I like the picks based on the talent disparity between the road and home teams.

I like the Bobcats to win in Indiana. The Bobcats, although a better team at home than on the road and with Gerald Wallace a bit banged up, are playing good basketball of late as evidenced by their victory over the Magic last week. They play a team that will also look to get up and down the court and because of that, I like the depth that the Bobcats hold on their bench. So long as they can keep Pacers forward Danny Granger in check, they should be able to win the game and ultimately the bet.

I like the Cavs to win big on the road in Detroit. The Pistons just have not looked good as of late and were on the receiving end of a drumming last night in Boston. They made look to rebound with a better performance tonight, but with the way that Cleveland and Lebron James have been playing of late, I just think the Pistons will be able to keep the game within single digits. There will be a period in play where the Cavs defense become suffocating or Lebron dominates the game on offense (which has happened before, see 2007 NBA Conference Finals) that it'll create a lead that the Pistons wont challenge again during the game.

Finally, I like the Lakers to win in Sacramento. Granted, this is a bit risky for a couple of reasons - the Lakers played a tough game last night and have not been playing dominant basketball of late. I chose this game for one particular reason - I think that because the team played last night, they want to have an early night tonight. I think the Lakers are a little disappointed in the way they played last night and want to put on a good effort against the Kings, who wont put up too much resistance on defense. I expect Kobe and company to come out guns blazing and to win by double digits as they look to correct their underwhelming play of late.

So there be the picks: Bobcats/Cavs/Lakers all covering their respective spreads.
Until Next Time!

-TheZar

61-43-1 NBA Spread Pick Record

Well, 1-2 on Thursday, but was beaten by the spread by a point on the two losses so its not all that bad I guess. Still, looking for winners tonight and Im hoping to deliver. Here are the picks!

Denver -2.5 vs Houston == Give me the Nuggets on the road to cover 3 points
LA Lakers -8 vs Golden State == Give me the Lakers on the road by double digits
New York vs Philadelphia -3 == Give me the Sixers at home by 4

I like the Nuggets on the road. They match up well against the Rockets with Chauncey Billups able to guard Aaron Brooks all night. So long as the Nuggets are able to contain production by Kevin Martin, Im not all that too concerned with what the Rockets can do. Granted, Carmelo Anthony will have a tough scoring night against Shane Battier and the Rockets defense, but I think the Nuggets win on the road and with the spread being so small, I choose to ignore it here.

I like the Lakers on the road in Golden State. Again, its all about the matchups and the Warriors just dont have the big men inside to contain the likes of Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom. So long as the Warriors go insane behind the 3-point line, I dont like the Warriors tonight.

Lastly, I like the Sixers at home by 4. Sixers are playing for a playoff spot. They have to control the 3-ball against the Knicks along with David Lee around the rim, but given the likes of Sam Dalembert and their athletes on the perimeter, the Sixers should be able to contain the scoring of the Knicks.

Well, there be the picks! Until next time!

61-41-1 NBA Record against the spread

NBA Picks for March 11th

2-1 last night with my picks. Only 3 games on the slate tonight in the NBA so theres no room to pick and choose. Here are the picks:

Atlanta -7 vs Washington ==> Give me the Hawks on the road to cover the spread
Chicago vs Orlando -13 ==> Give me the Magic despite the big spread
Portland -6 vs Golden State ==> Give me the Blazers on the road

Three games and Im picking all three to cover (not good, not good at all lol). But in all seriousness, I like the favorites in each of these games as they face weak competition.

In the Hawks/Wizards game, I like Atlanta to cover the 7 points on the road. Main reason? I like the matchups that the Hawks have against the Wizards. The primary threat for Washington since the trade deadline has been Andray Blatche and I think the Hawks will counter him on defense with Josh Smith, who has great size and athleticism. I expect Smith to be able to keep Blatche in check and if they do that the Wiz just wont find the points elsewhere on the floor.

In the Bulls/Magic game, I like the Magic to cover despite the 13 point spread. The Bulls just dont match up well against the Magic, especially inside with Dwight Howard. With Joakim Noah of the Bulls out with injury, there just isnt a player on the Bulls roster who will be able to keep Dwight in check. As a result, I expect Dwight Howard to have a big game for the Magic and to cover the 13 point spread. The only concern for me, on a betting/spread standpoint would be that the Magic are ahead by a large margin early in the 4th, the Magic pull their starters, and the Bulls are able to beat the spread late as a result.

Lastly in the Blazers/Warriors game, I like the Blazers to win comfortably on the road. The Warriors remain without their primary scorer in Monta Ellis, out with injury. As a result, the Warriors have been leaning heavily on their rookie point guard, Stephen Curry. But because the Blazers tend to play well defensively on the perimeter and only have to focus their attention on Curry (who only put up 9 points in their last meeting), I like the Blazers to win on the road, by about 8-10 points.

There be the picks! Until next time!

60-39-1 in NBA Picks against the spread (.600 win percentage)

NBA Picks for March 10

2-1 last night and looking for more this week. Lets grab some more:

Charlotte vs Philadelphia -1.5 ==> Give me the Bobcats on the road
Denver -7.5 vs Minnesota ==> Give me the Nuggets on the road by double digits
Toronto vs Sacramento -1 ==> Give me the Raptors on the road

All games chosen featured today are road teams, but I think each of them are better overall squads than the teams they are facing. Surprised about the 8 point handicap that the Nuggets are getting over the Wolves since the Timberwolves are just a poor team. Not much to really say in terms of insight into my picks. I just like the road teams in these games since theyre more talented than theyre home opponents and the handicap spread given is pretty small.

There are the picks. Until next time!

58-38-1 in NBA Handicap Picks

NBA Picks for March 9

One step forward, one step back. Looking to rebound once again after going 1-2 last night. Here are the picks:

Houston -4 vs Washington ==> Give me the Rockets to win and cover the points
Miami vs Charlotte -3.5 ==> Give me the Bobcats at home to cover 4 points
Philadelphia vs Indiana -2 ==> Give me the 76s on the road with the points

I like the Rockets and the Sixers on the road going up against two of the weaker teams in the league. Houston are playing a Wizards team that has lost three straight games and although they have been struggling themselves lately (4-6 record in the last 10 games), I dont think Houston has too much problems with Washington looking to rebuild. So long as the Rockets can keep Andray Blatche in check (20-10, nothing more), the Rockets should be able to win this game.

I like the Sixers on the road against Indiana. Theyre the more talented team and are still in the playoff hunt, so this game is huge if they still hold those aspirations. Plus, theyre entering the game as the underdog (albeit a small one) and anytime you can get points on a game, I'll take it.

Lastly, I like the Bobcats at home against the Heat. They are a much better team at home than on the road (22-8 at home, 8-23 away). Their up and down style does work for Dwayne Wade of the Heat, but Im willing to bet the all-around assault that the Bobcats and their roster provide will be able to off-set the production that Wade will be able to put out.

Until next time! A Bientot! See you soon!

56-37-1 in NBA Picks against the Spread (.596 winning percentage)

NBA Picks for March 8

2-0-1 last night and looking to build on the momentum. Here are the picks:

San Antonio vs Cleveland -5 ==> Take the Cavs at home to cover 5 points
Dallas -6.5 vs Minnesota ==> Give me the Mavs to cover 7 points on the road
New Jersey vs Memphis -8.5 ==> Give me the Grizz at home to win by double digits

In the first game, I like the Cavs to win at home. San Antonio will be without one of its stars as Tony Parker suffered a broken hand over the weekend and looks to be out until the playoffs. The Cavs are awesome at home (only 4 home losses) and considering the loss of Parker for the Spurs, the Cavs should be able to win this game late.

In the other two games, I like the Mavs and the Grizz to beat up on two of the lower ranking teams in the league in the Timberwolves and the Nets. Nothing more to say than that I guess. The picks are just good teams going up against really bad teams.

There be the picks! Until next time!

55-35-1 in NBA picks against the spread (.604 percentage)

NBA Picks for March 7

Sorry for the briefness in today's post, gotta get the picks in before the games start. 1-2 last night, so looking for a rebound day today. Here are the picks!

Oklahoma City -3.5 vs Sacramento ==> Give me the Thunder to win and cover on the road
LA Lakers vs Orlando -2 ==> Give me the Lakers on the road with the points
Portland vs Denver -6.5 ==> Give me the Nuggets at home to cover 7 points

Until next time!
-TheZar

54-37 with NBA Picks against the spread

NBA Handicap Picks for March 6

Back to my winning ways! Went 2-1 last night and looking for some more winners. Here are the picks!

Atlanta vs Miami -1.5 ==> Give me the Hawks on the road

Dallas -1.5 vs Chicago ==> Give me the Mavs in Chicago

San Antonio -1.5 vs Memphis ==> Give me the Grizz at home

Three games, three small spreads so you really have to treat each one like a pick'em scenario.

In the Atlanta/Miami game, I like the Hawks to win on the road. Despite the fact that Miami had an impressive home win against the Lakers at home just 3 days ago, Im going to take the mrore talented team in Atlanta. Theyre winners of 4 straight, I think they extend the streak to 5 with good defense and Joe Johnson leading the scoring.

In the Mavs/Bulls game, Im going to go again with the more talented team in Dallas, who happened to have won their last 10 games. Dallas since acquiring Brendan Haywood and Caron Butler from the Washington Wizards have been looking like championship contenders. I expect the Mavs to win this game considering the Bulls gave up a 15 point lead to the Grizzlies earlier this week. Just not enough defenders nor scoring talent to contend with the Mavericks, in my opinion.

Lastly, in the Spurs/Grizz game, I like Memphis to hold home court. San Antonio will be playing the 2nd game of a back to back and considering they are the oldest team in the league couple with the running, offensive style that Memphis employs, I expect the Grizzlies to win this game outright. It also helps that Memphis is playing this game at home where they are a significantly better team.

So there be the picks! Until next time!

53-35 record in NBA handicap picks

NBA Picks for March 5th

Another day, another 1-2 result. Sucks I know, but no time to feel discouraged. Another slate of games on the schedule, this time with more selections and (hopefully) a winning record. Here be the picks!

New Orleans vs San Antonio -8 ==> Give me the Hornets on the road with the points

Oklahoma City -4.5 vs LA Clippers ==> The Thunder on the road by double digits

LA Lakers -3.5 vs Charlotte ==> Give me the Bobcats in an upset of sorts

I like the Hornets to cover the spread on the road. Their current PG, Darren Collison has filled in admirably for all-NBA world PG Chris Paul. I expect Collison to have a good game attacking the net and as a result will keep this game close. San Antonio will really want to win this game, and I wouldnt be too discouraged if the Spurs are ahead by 15 by the end of the 3rd since the Spurs have a habit of removing their starters late in games to preserve their legs come playoff time (see Tim Duncan).

I like the Thunder to win on the road against the lowly Clippers. Although the Thunder arent as good on the road as they are at home, and although the Clippers arent as bad at home as they are on the road, the Thunder matchup well against them. Expect Kevin Durant to have a strong game against the Clippers and expect Eric Gordon and Baron Davis of the Clippers to have a tough time on offense as theyre checked by Thabo Sefolosha and Russell Westbrook, respectfully.

Finally, give me the Bobcats at home to beat the small spread. I like the Cats at home since LA is coming off an overtime loss on the road to Miami and are going to be playing an energetic team in Charlotte. The Bobcats are a good home team and should keep the game competitive for four quarters.

So there are the picks! Until next time, bidding you adieu!

51-34 with picks against the spread in the NBA

NBA - March 4

Alas, the winning-week-streak is over after going 1-2 in the last slate of games chosen. Time to start anew. Three games to choose from, hopefully a clean sweep for tonight. Here are the picks:

LA Lakers -5 vs Miami ==> Take the Lakers on the road

Memphis vs Chicago -5.5 ==> Take the Grizz on the road

Utah vs Phoenix -1.5 ==> Take the Suns at home in a toss up

I like the Lakers to win at home in a nationally televised game. Lakers are clearly the more talented team and I like to believe that Lakers forward Ron Artest can keep Dwayne Wade of the Heat underwraps.

I like the Grizz to win on the road against the Bulls. Both teams like to run and gun, but the Grizz actually have the talent to play that style of game more effectively. Expect Z-Bo, Zach Randolph, to have a good game for the Grizzlies as Taj Gibson is too thin to keep Randolph out of the paint and Joakim Noah is out for three weeks with plantar fasciitis for the Bulls. In fact, Im a little surprised at the line being as big as it is (Chicago to win by 6?!?). Even if the Bulls win tonight, I dont expect to be by that margin especially considering the injuries the Bulls face and the fact that the Grizzlies are the better team overall. In any event, give me the Grizzlies to at least beat the spread and, in my opinion, win the game.

Lastly, I like Phoenix to hold home court against the Jazz. The talent on both teams, for me, is equal and really the only deciding factor for this game is the fact that Utah isnt nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Give me the Suns to win at home in a close game.

Cheers for now!!!

50-32 in NBA games against the spread

NBA Picks for MAR 2

Hotter than a Habanero Pepper these last few days! 48-30 record picking against the spread but 11-1 in the last 4 days posted. Here are the picks!

Sacramento vs Oklahoma City -10.5 ==> Take the Thunder at home to win big

Indiana vs LA Lakers -11.5 ==> Take the Lakers to win big at home

Boston -4.5 vs Detroit ==> Take the Pistons to challenge

Yes, those are big scores to cover for the teams that I chose, but considering the circumstances, Im pretty confident that both teams will beat the spread. Sacramento will have a tough go on the road, especially in Oklahoma City who have a strong record at home (18-11). Add the fact that Tyreke Evans of the Kings will have a tough go tonight against Thunder guards like Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha (who should play Evans tough on the perimeter defensively), the Kings wont be able to go shot for shot with Kevin Durant and company.

With the Lakers, they shouldnt find too much trouble dealing with the Pacers. Outside of small forward, the Lakers outclass the Pacers at every position on the court. So long as the Lakers can keep Pacer forward Danny Granger from going off for 50 points tonight, the Lakers will win this game comfortably.

As for the Pistons pick, its just more of a vote of non-confidence in Boston than it is in Detroit. Detroit isnt a terrible team at home, while Boston has been struggling to find its playoff form (as evidenced by their loss this weekend to the lowly New Jersey Nets). Take the Pistons to challenge for a win.

There be the picks! Hope you come back soon!

PS: Just on a side, a little reminder for fans of MMA to catch this weekend's WEC event on Saturday at 10pm. If youre living in Canada, it should be pretty easy to catch since TheScore will be televising all WEC events live for the foreseeable future. WEC and the lighter weight classes put on some great, exciting fights so be sure not to miss it.

NBA - Mar 1

Went 2-1 with the picks I put up last time. 8-1 in the last 9 games chosen. Doing these last minute so sorry for the briefness. Here are the picks:

Dallas vs Charlotte -3 --> Take the Mavs with the points

Atlanta vs Chicago -1 --> Take the Hawks on the road in a tossup

Toronto vs Houston -6 --> Take the Rockets without Bosh in the lineup.

NBA Feb 26

6 Game Win Streak!!

Lets make it 9!

Here be the picks:

Cleveland -5.5 vs Toronto --> Take the Cavs on the road to win by double digits

Portland vs Chicago -3.5 --> Take the Blazers with the points

Minnesota vs Oklahoma City -9.5 --> Take the Thunder at home to win by double digits

NBA Record 43-29

NBA - FEB 24

Alright, so everyone in the room who went 3-0 on their picks last night, raise your hand. Mmmhmm, thats what I thought. Yes, yes, dont want to toot my own horn, but I did pretty well for meself last night. Hopefully this trend of winners doesnt lose momentum anytime soon. Here are the picks:

LA Lakers vs Dallas -1 ---> Take the Mavs at home with the win

Memphis -1 vs Washington ---> Take the Grizz on the Road

Detroit vs LA Clippers -3.5 ---> Take the Clips

I like Dallas to win at home against the Lakers. Its a big game for both teams considering they are among the elite of the Western conference and both want to use this game as a gauge to determine where they stand in the grand scheme of things. Dallas has looked good of late, especially after the additions of former All-Stars in Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. LA are coming off a last second win against the Grizzlies last night. In the end, I like the Mavs to win with the fresher legs, playing motivated basketball in front of a home crowd.

In the Memphis/Washington game, I like the Grizz to squeak by with a win on the road. The Grizzlies come off a crushing home loss against the Lakers and so they may be a little wary coming into tonights game. However, there are two factors in leading me to pick the Grizz over the Wiz. For one, the Grizzlies just have better overall talent on their roster. For another, the Wiz will be without one of their stars as former All-Star and recent addition to the team, Josh Howard, will be out for the remainder of the year with a torn ACL knee ligament. In the end, I expect the Grizz to come out sluggish in the 1st quarter/1st half, but they'll eventually work the kinks out to win the game on the road.

Lastly, I like the Clips to win at home against the Pistons. Simple reason for me in taking the Clips - Detroit's not a good road team (7-19). On the other hand, the Clippers play considerably well at home (16-12) and have some good matchups that they can exploit all night, namely Chris Kamen on the inside. So, expect the Clips to win by 6 -10 points, covering the 3.5 point spread easily.

NBA Record against the spread in 2009-10 --> 43-29

NBA - FEB 23

Coming back strong with an overall record of 40-29 with picks against the line, looking for some winner tonight. Here are the picks:

New Orleans vs Cleveland (-11.5) --> Take the Hornets to keep it within 10

Portland (-7.5) vs New Jersey --> Take the Blazers

LA Lakers (-5.5) vs Memphis --> Take the Grizz plus the points

I like NO to challenge the Cavs at home. Cleveland hasnt been gelling since the acquisition of Jamison and I think the team will continue to struggle as they try and find a role for the forward. New Orleans has been impressive of late and PG Nick Collision has been impressive since taking over duties from Chris Paul, who has been nursing some injuries.

I like New Jersey to play well at home against Portland, but I just think Portland has too much talent for the Nets to handle. Portland will be playing tomorrow night in Toronto so I think they buckle down and focus tonight so that they get at least a split in this 2-game time frame. Expect Portland to play well and win comfortably so that they can rest starters for tomorrow.

Finally, Im taking the Grizz to possibly win tonight against the Lakers. Memphis played LA tough at home last time out, winning by 2 points. With Kobe nursing some injuries and Memphis playing at home, I just think the Grizz keep this game close.

UFC 110 Picks

With UFC 110 just hours away, I figured I would put up some picks for the card before its too late.

• Heavyweight Bout: Mirko Filipović vs. Anthony Perosh

Perosh is a last minute replacement to the fight after CroCop's original opponent, Ben Rothwell, came down with an illness. Whether it was Perosh or Rothwell, the pick I would have made would be and is Crocop. Mirko has had his ups and downs in the UFC and at one point called his retirement. Now that he is returning to the fight game, one has to believe that this "victory lap" of sorts is done for the purpose of coming out and leaving the world of MMA on a positive note.

Mirko via TKO in round 2

• Light Heavyweight Bout: Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader

Bader at UFC 110 takes a step up in terms of competition fighting an always game Keith Jardine. Although Jardine seems to give guys trouble from time to time, I dont expect Bader to have too much trouble in this fight. Expect Bader to use his wrestling and get within a comfort zone in this fight, not allowing Jardine to throw effective leg strikes on the feet.

Bader via UD, maybe even a stoppage on the ground

• Lightweight Bout: Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos

Probably the fight that has me the most intrigued coming up tonight is this one. Stevenson is looking to work himself up to the lightweight championship discussion and he fights Sotiropoulous who should be a good test for him, particularly on the ground. Both have good bases in grappling and have good boxing. For me, I think the key for the fight will not be inside the ring but rather outside. Stevenson is working with Greg Jackson, MMA guru to the who's who of the UFC, while Sotiropoulos fights in front of a home crowd. Ultimately, I like Sotiropoulous to win the fight in an upset of sorts (granted, Im picking this fight more on a gut instinct rather than rationale). I think this fight goes to the judges and Sotiropoulos does enough to win over the fans (and judges) in a close fight. Plus, Sotiropoulos is going at +190 on Bodog, good odds in my books.

Sotiropoulos via close, but unanimous decision

• Middleweight Bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping

In the co-main event of the evening, we get a slimmer Wanderlei Silva (dropping down to his first fight at 185 pounds in the UFC), against Michael Bisping, trying to work his way back into title contention. For me, the key to the fight will be if Bisping can get Wanderlei to respect his power. The last time Bisping fought a "big" 185 pounder, he got clocked by Dan Henderson in a memorable knockout. We all know that Wanderlei, like Hendo, has dynamite in his hands and he has a good chin to boot. If Bisping cannot get Wand to respect his power, I see Wanderlei walking down Bisping all night, eventually getting caught with a punch and either being stopped out KO'ed.

However, an interesting sidenote to all Bisping fans, all is not lost. You have to remember that one of Bisping's sparring partners in Rampage Jackson, a fighter who has been in the ring with Wanderlei three times, and who in their last battle got the upper hand. Rampage more than likely showed Bisping some weak points in Wanderlei's armor and that could go a long way into helping The Count come away with a win.

Regardless, Wanderlei via TKO in the 1st or 2nd.

• Heavyweight Bout: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez

Finally, in the other co-main event, we have the grizzled veteran in Minotauro Nogueira facing off with the young up and coming wrestler, Cain Velasquez. This is a really intriguing fight considering a win by either fighter propels them into the heavyweight title picture. Both are well rounded fighters, albeit Nogueira being a better submission fighter on the ground while Velasquez is better at wrestling, control, and ground and pound. Who do I like? Too close to call for me. What Im interested in seeing is where this fight goes. On the feet, I think technically Minotauro has the edge with his boxing. On the ground, although I think Cain's best chance at winning this fight is with his wrestling and utilizing ground and pound, you are asking for trouble by taking the fight to the ground considering that Minotauro is technically one of the best BJJ artists not just in the heavyweight division, but in the world. As a result, I think I have to take Minotauro via a submission in the 2nd or 3rd.

Minotauro via submission in the 2nd

NBA --> Feb 5th

Yup, back to making the daily 3 picks as well. Im riding a 6-game streak from way back when, so hopefully I'll be able to keep up the winning ways. Anyway, here be the picks!!!

Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks (-2) --> take the Knicks by 3

Phoenix Suns (-2.5) vs Sacramento Kings --> take the Suns by 3

Houston Rockets vs Memphis Grizzlies (-5) --> take the Rockets plus the points

Reasons:

I like the Knicks to win at home against the Bucks. The Knicks are either really good, or they're really bad at home. I'm taking the former rather the latter in this case.

I like the Suns to win on the road by 3. This line sorta jumped out at me. Kings play a style that generally plays into the Suns hands - uptempo with a poor interior defense. I expect a big game from Amare in this game, someone who the Kings wont find an answer to all night.

Finally, I like the Rockets to play the Grizzlies tough on the road. Grizzlies are a really good team at home, but at the same time the Rockets seem to be a team that just gives everyone fits despite a lack of star level talent on their current roster. If anything, I think the Rockets keep this game close - at least closer than the 5 points being afforded by the spread.

NBA Pick Record 38-28

UFC 109

Yes yes, making a return to daily blogs on the world of sports. I'll have my NBA picks up later today, but until then, I guess I'll put up my picks for this weekends UFC event, UFC 109 - Alzheimer's.....I mean, Relentless (heh, yeah I didnt think it was that funny either...)

Just gonna focus on the main card, winners in bold:

• Light Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman
• Middleweight bout: Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen
• Welterweight bout: Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago
• Middleweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller
• Welterweight bout: Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg

In the Couture/Coleman fight, I really dont see this being too difficult a fight for Randy to handle. Coleman's only real shot at beating Randy is by getting this fight to the ground, something that Brock Lesnar could not do in his fight with The Natural. Ultimately, I think Randy grinds out a victory against Coleman via dirty boxing in the clinch. I would not be surprised if the fight is stopped in the 2nd or 3rd after Couture gets Coleman to the ground via the clinch.

In the Marquardt/Sonnen fight, I like Nate to win the fight either by decision or stoppage. As good as Chael is in his wrestling, Nate dwarfs him in every other part of the fight game. Not only that, but the advantage that Chael has in terms of his wrestling isnt all that much considering Nate's camp has him training against some of the best wrestlers in MMA period (Georges St. Pierre and Rashad Evans coming to mind). In the end, I just think Nate's overall MMA ability will help him find a way to victory against Sonnen who is still a relatively one-dimension fighter.

In the Swick/Thiago fight, its a difficult fight to judge. Swick is coming off a loss to Dan Hardy and is looking to rebound against one of the rising stars in the division in Thiago. Problem is Thiago is that outside of his flash-KO win over Josh Koscheck, he really hasnt fought notable names that people can use to gauge for this fight. He was impressive in his loss to Jon Fitch, but at the same time a loss is a loss. Ultimately however, I do thing Thiago comes away with a win against Swick. I see Thiago looking to close the distance in order to secure a takedown where in he can use his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to his advantage. Either a decision win or a submission for Thiago here imo.

In the Maia/Miller fight, you have to expect a good ground game clinic by both fighters here considering both hold a base in grappling. Granted, we may see the complete opposite in this fight with both fighters keeping the fight on the feet as their grappling may cancel each other out. At the end of the day however, I do see this fight ending up in the ground, and as good a grappler as Miller is, Maia is on a world class level. Only way I see Dan Miller winning is via control in top position for 3 rounds - a very difficult endeavor against any BJJ black belt, let alone Demian Maia. I have Maia via sub.

Finally in the Serra/Trigg fight, I like Serra to take it. I see Serra taking the center of the ring away from Trigg and loading up his hands all night. Problem for Trigg is that his strengths lie in grinding out wins on the ground and using his wrestling. A strategy like that against Matt Serra however is only asking for trouble considering Serra's expertise in BJJ. In the end, I expect Serra to win via a decision or possibly with a sub after rocking Trigg with a loaded hand and then taking his back while he tries to recover from the shot.

As for the undercard fights, I wont run down all of them, but I will give some random opinions on who may be good underdogs to pick:

I think Nover is a good even money bet against Rob Emerson. Emerson is coming off 2 losses and although Nover is returning to the ring after not being able to fight Sam Stout at UFN 19 after a fainting episode, I do expect Nover to take the fight to the ground where he holds a significant advantage over his opponent. In fact, Im a little shocked to see Emerson as the favorite going into the fight. In any event, Nover via sub.

As well, I think Brian Stann may be a very good underdog pick if youre really looking to lay money down on a big dog. Stann fights Paul Davis - a world champion grappler with great credentials in freestyle wrestling. However, he is still a little inexperienced in terms of his exposure to MMA plus he fights someone in Stann who can win the fight with one punch. Either this fight ends early because of Stann's power or it ends via a sub by Davis whenever he takes the fight to the ground.

So there be my picks. I'll try and post my thoughts on the event sometime next week. Til then, its THA signing off. PEACE!