Nov30 - NBA

Alright, 2-1 last night and only a game under .500. Time has come to flip this burger. Here the picks:

Game1: Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks (-2)

Pick: Bucks by 3

Game2: Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warrior (-2.5)

Pick: Warriors by 3

Game3: Memphis Grizzlies vs Utah Jazz (-10)

Pick: Jazz by 11

Reasons: I like the Bucks to win at home for coach Scott Skiles as he faces off against a former ballclub in the Chicago Bulls. Bucks generally keep games close and with the spread in this game being so small, I figure that the Bucks should be able to squeak out a win against the Bulls.

I like the Warriors to win at home against the Pacers once again in a close one. Golden State will be playing at home against a team that plays a similar style of basketball as they do. I just think that the Warriors win this game and since the spread is so small, I treat it like a pickem situation.

I like the Jazz to win comfortably at home. There is a danger with the Grizzlies that one of their stars get hot and score 30 points (ie/ OJ Mayo, Zach Randolph). But at the same time, this is a Jazz team that executes well at home and should win this game easily. The question is only by how many points. Im thinking that its in the double digits.

NBA Record 17-18

Nov 29 - NBA

So went 1-2 last night, to bring the overall record to 2 games under .500. Time to turn the ship around right here, right now. Here are the picks:

Game1: Orlando Magic (-6) vs New York Knicks

Pick: Magic

Game2: Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5)

Pick: Rockets with the points

Game3: Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5)

Pick: Grizz with the points

NBA Record: 15-17

NOV 28 - NBA

Went 2-1 last night, putting me just a game under .500 for the year. Hopefully we get 2 winners (at least) here and bring the record into the positive. Here the picks:

Game1: Charlotte Bobcats vs Washington Wizards (-3.5)

Pick: Wiz by 4

Game2: Los Angeles Lakers (-9.5) vs Golden State Warriors

Pick: Lakers by 10

Game3: Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5)

Pick: Mavericks plus the points

Reasons:

In the Bobcats/Wizards game, I like the Wizards to win this game at home. Although Charlotte plays very good defense at all positions on the floor, they are 0-8 on the road. Contrast that with the good overall scoring from the Wizards and I like them to cover 4 points, but just barely.

In the Lakers/Warriors game, I like the Lakers to win comfortably in this game. The Warriors just wont have the answers inside for Laker bigmen like Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. The depth will be a problem for the Warriors to deal with as well since they like to play with a shortened bench while the Lakers can easily go 8-9 deep into their roster.

In the Mavericks/Cavaliers game, I like Dallas to win on the road. They have been playing good basketball of late (8-2 in their last 10 games) and are a good road team (7-3 thus far this season). Cleveland lost last night to the Bobcats on the road and may have been looking forward to this game so they may just play some great basketball tonight and blow out the Mavs. But, I still like Dallas to keep this game close considering the level of competition and how well they have played all year thus far.

November record: 14-15

Week 12 - NFL

So, I went 2-3 last week, but this Thursday went 2-1 to bring my overall NFL spread pick record to 4-4. Lets try and pick winners for this weekend and get in the black!

Game 1: Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs Buffalo Bills

Pick: Miami by 4

Game2: Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans (-3)

Pick: Titans to beat the spread

Game3: Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)

Pick: Vikings by 11

Game 4: New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Pick: Saints by 2

Game 5: Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles (-9)

Pick: Eagles to beat the spread

Reasons:

In the Dolphins/Bills game, I expect the Dolphins to be able to run on the Bills. Ricky Williams had a great game last week, rushing for 119 yards and scoring 3 touchdowns. I like him to run for 100 yards this week as well considering fellow Dolphin running back Ronnie Brown is still battling injury. As well, the Dolphins played last Thursday and have had a long rest heading into this week to prepare mentally and physically for the Bills.

In the Cardinals/Titans matchup, I like the Titans to win through ball control. Much has been written about the Titans turnaround since Vince young took over quarterback duties with the team going on a 4-game win streak. I believe that the streak continues with the strong run game the team possesses. Chris Johnson has run well for the Titans and in combination with Vince Young, the Titans are playing good football - as good as any other team in the league. Add to the fact that Kurt Warner is coming in a little banged up and I like the Titans to win at home.

In the Bears/Vikings game, I like the Vikes to win by 2 touchdowns. The key for me is the fact that the Vikings are playing at home. When they play at home, they have the significant advantage of the crowd noise playing against the snap count of the opposing QB. Their defense thrives in that environment and will all over Bears QB Jay Cutler.

In the Patriots/Saints game, I like the Saints to win by a large margin. The Saints at home have the advantage on offense of playing on turf with their offense. I just dont expect the Patriots to have enough firepower to keep up with the Saints.

In the Redskins/Eagles matchup, I think the Eagles bomb the Redskins out of the water. Again, I dont think the Skins offense can put up 2 or 3 touchdowns necessary to keep in range of the Eagles who should be able to put up 28 points at least.

NFL Record 4-4

Nov 27 - NBA

Alright, split the two-game set last night, so Im still 2 games under .500. Lets get a winner tonight to cut down that deficit. Here come the picks!

Game1: Dallas Mavericks (-2.5) vs Indiana Pacers

Pick: Mavs by 3

Game2: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trailblazers (-11.5)

Pick: Blazers by big

Game3: Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics (-9.5)

Pick: Celts by 10

Reasons: In the Mavs/Pacers game, I like Dallas to win comfortably and the fact that the spread is only 3 points, to me, makes for good value. Dallas need only worry about keeping Danny Granger of the Pacers in check, since the Pacers supporting cast of Troy Murphy and TJ Ford have been lackluster thus far this season. As a result, Shawn Marion of Dallas is the key to this game for Dallas since he'll likely draw the assignment against Granger all night.

In the Grizzlies/Blazers game, once again I will take Portland to cover a big spread at home. As stated before in my Portland picks, the Blazers at home are one of the toughest teams in the L and against a Grizzlies team that doesnt offer too much in the way of defense, I expect the Blazers to win comfortably by 13, 14 points.

In the Raptors/Celtics matchup, again, Im taking a big spread with the Celtics to cover 10 points. Obviously, its a risky pick considering the hot-cold nature of the Toronto Raptors - one night they can take on the world, the next night they play like uninspired pussycats. For me, I think playing in Boston, the Raptors will show up and make it competitive for a while, but I expect the Celtics defense to eventually wear down the Raptors and come away with a good win. Expect a big game also from someone on the 2nd unit for the Celtics like Eddie House. Raptors dont cover the perimeter all too well and Eddie House is one of the best and streakiest 3-point shooters in the league.

NBA Record 12-14

Nov 26 - NBA

Went 2-1 last night, so thats encouraging. Hopefully, I go 2-0 tonight to bring the record back to .500. Anyways, here are my picks!

Game1: Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks (-3.5)

Pick: Falcons by 4

Game2: Chicago Bulls vs. Utah Jazz (-7)

Pick: Utah by 8

Reasons: In the Magic/Hawks matchup, I like the Hawks to win for several reasons. First off, the team at home is one of the best in the league thus far this season, going 7-0. Their defense should be solid against the better offensive options for the Magic as Al Horford and Josh Smith should be able to keep Dwight Howard and Vince Carter of Orlando in check . If they do that, Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams for Atlanta should be able to put up enough points to win this game by 7 or 8.

In the Bulls/Jazz game, I like the Jazz to win. Utah at home is one of the best teams in the NBA historically. Bulls are struggling coming into Salt Lake City, having lost their last 3 games, and their losing ways should continue to haunt them tonight.

NBA Record: 11-13

Thansgiving - NFL

With the US Thanksgiving weekend just about here, I figure I put my picks up for that day. Hopefully it gets me out of the hole. Anyhoo, here are the picks!

Game1: Green Bay Packers (-10.5) vs Detroit Lions

Pick: Lions plus the points

Game2: Oakland Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys (-13.5)

Pick: Cowboys by 2 converted touchdowns

Game3: New York Giants (-6.5) vs Denver Broncos

Pick: Broncos plus the points

Reasons:

In the Lions game, I like Detroit to keep the game relatively close considering that theyre playing at home, on a shortened week, in front of a national audience. Detroit doesnt have too many options on offense, but they did put up 38 points last week (albeit against the lowly Cleveland Browns). I dont think they put up just as many points, but I do believe that they keep it within a touchdown.

In the Raiders/Cowboys game, I think its a statement game for the Cowboys, who are in that perennial dogfight they call the NFC East. Oakland, is well, just bad. I dont think they put up more than 14 points this weekend.

In the Giants/Broncos game, although the Broncos are on a 4-game losing streak, I think they can turn it around this week. Again, shortened week for the players having played just last Sunday and the Giants have to travel to the West Coast and play in the thin air of Denver. I think the game is a close one, within a field goal.

NFL record: 2-3

Nov 25 - NBA

Bah! That blew. Went 0-3 last night, digging myself back into a hole. Let's try and rebound tonight and get back in the positive. Heres the picks!

Game1: Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Hornets (-2.5)

Pick: Hornets by 3

Game2: Toronto Raptors vs. Charlotte Bobcats (-2.5)

Pick: Raps with the points

Game3: Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets (-4)

Pick: Mavs with the points

Reasons: With the Bucks and Hornets, I like the Hornets to win a close game. Since firing their former head coach Byron Scott, the Hornets have played better basketball, particularly at home. For example, in their last 2 home games against the Phoenix Suns and Atlanta Hawks, the Hornets beat both teams by comfortable margins (7 and 8 points, respectively).

With the Raptors and Bobcats, I like the Raptors to win the game outright. Despite having to play last night against the Indiana Pacers, I like the matchups provided to the Toronto Raptors bigmen in this game. Raptors forward Chris Bosh and center Andrea Bargnani should have a favourable matchup against Tyson Chandler who will have to be drawn outside onto the perimeter.

With the Mavs and Rockets, I like the Mavs to win that game outright as well. I just think the Mavs have the scorers to outwork the defense that Houston provides game-in, game-out. I expect the Rockets to keep the game close, but eventually someone on the Mavericks is bound to go on a scoring streak (whether its Jason Terry or Dirk Nowitzky) that the Rockets just wont be able to match.

November Record: 9-12

Nov. 24 - NBA

Hey! Hey! Hey!

Went 2-1 once again last night to bring the overall record back to even terms. Time to get into the positive with today's slate of 3 games....here be the picks!

Game1: Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors (-5)

Pick: Pacers with the points

Game2: New York Knicks vs Los Angeles Lakers (-13.5)

Pick: The Lakers by 14

Game3: Philadelphia 76ers vs Washington Wizards (-2.5)

Pick: The Wiz by 3

Reasons: In the Pacers/Raptors game, I like the Pacers against the spread. I think Toronto wins this game, but the game goes down to the wire. With the game being so close, I think 5 points is too much for a Raptors team that doesnt play defense all that well. Expect a big game from Pacers forward Danny Granger since the Raptors always seem to give up big games to good scoring wingmen.

In the Knicks/Lakers game, yes, that is a huge spread to be giving up, but I still like the Lakers to win that game against the spread. The Knicks wont have anyone to stop Lakers bigmen Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, both of whom should have strong games. Add to the fact that the Lakers defense will force most of the shots from the perimeter and that the Knicks will have to travel across the country and I see the Lakers winning by 20 tonight.

In the Sixers/Wizards game, I'm treating it like a pickem game. As such, I like the Wizards to beat the Sixers outright. The game should be a close one, but I like the offense that the Wizards have better than the Sixers. Antawn Jamison should have a nice night as he goes up against Elton Brand, who will be forced to play out of his comfort zone on defense on the perimeter.

NBA record: 9-9

Nov 23 - NBA

Woot woot! Came out with a winning record for the first time in a couple of days. Lets hope this is a trend. The games.....

Game 1: Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-5)

Pick: Memphis by 6

Game 2: Chicago Bulls vs. Portland Trailblazers (-7)

Pick: Portland by 8

Game 3: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5)

Pick: LA by 6

Reasons: Pick the Grizzlies because at home they play pretty well and Sacramento without Kevin Martin aren't scoring too many points. Pick the Blazers since at home they're one of the best in the league. Pick the Clippers because they are the lesser of two evils when compared to the Timberwolves, plus they're playing at home.

November record: 7-8

November 22 - NBA

another day, another 1-2 record...no explanations today, just the picks

Game 1: Indiana Pacers vs. Charlotte Bobcats (-1)

Pick: Bobcats

Game 2: OKC Thunder vs. LA Lakers (-9.5)

Pick: Lakers by 10

Game 3: Orlando Magic (-3) vs. Toronto Raptors

Pick: Toronto plus the points

November 21 - NBA

Alright, 1-2 last night, gotta turn this ship around....the pickums!

Game 1: Atlanta Hawks (-4.5) vs. New Orleans Hornets

Pick: Atlanta by 5

Reasons: Atlanta played last night and there is a risk of them coming out flat on the road, but this Hawks team has been playing great basketball thus far this season. They really have a good balance to their team, especially in terms of scoring with so many options available.

Game 2: Washington Wizards vs. San Antonio Spurs (-7.5)
Pick: Wizards plus the points

Reasons: The Wizards are finally healthy after getting back Antwan Jamison into the lineup. The Spurs on the other hand are beat up as they may play this game without the services of both Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker out of the game. As a result, I dont see how Tim Duncan alone can defeat a team like the Wizards with their scorers, let alone be the favourite coming into the game.

Game 3: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Portland Trailblazers (-13)

Pick: Portland by big

Reasons: Yes, thats a big spread for anyone, but the T-Wolves are going into one of the tougher home arenas in the NBA against a team that is defensively strong and offensively can put points up on the board. Not to mention the fact that Minnesota doesnt have too many offensive options outside of center Al Jefferson (who should be held in check by the presence of power forward LaMarcus Aldridge and center Greg Oden) and I can see Portland winning this by 20. The only danger with this game being such a large spread is that the T-Wolves make a late charge and lose the game by less than 13.

IN SUM

Atlanta (-4.5)

Washington (+7.5)

Portland (-13)

November Record: 4-5

November 22 - NFL

(Spreads taken from PROLINE POINT SPREAD on Friday, November 20)

Going to pick games against the spread but instead of 3 games (as per norm in the NBA section), I'm going to go with a nice 5 game sheet. Here be the pickums!

Game 1: Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants (-6.5)

Bet: Giants by 7

Reasons: Giants are coming off their bye week and get time to rest up. They return to the field at home against a Falcons team that is going to miss the backbone of their offense in Michael Turner, who is likely out of Sunday's game with a high-ankle sprain.

Game 2: Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5)

Bet: Jags by 10

Reasons: The Bills are spiraling after the firing of head coach Dick Jauron. They go up against a Jacksonville team who play considerably better at home than they do on the road (3-1 at home vs. 2-3 away). Their run game under Maurice Jones-Drew has been strong all year (860 yards rushing with 12 touchdowns - hes already outperformed his numbers from last season) while they always seem to get good production from wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker playing at home (28 receptions for 464 yards and 4 touchdowns over 4 games).

Game 3: Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Bet: Ravens plus the points

Reasons: Indianapolis barely squeezed out of their game against the Patriots with their undefeated record intact. This week, I dont believe that they will be as lucky. Baltimore's defense isnt what it used to be, but playing at home with the loud crowd should help in slowing down the Indy offense. We should see a lot of Baltimore running back Ray Rice in this game to keep Indy quarterback Peyton Manning off the field. I expect the game to be close and so I'll take the points.

Game 4: New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (-10.5)

Bet: New England by 11

Reasons: The Jets find themselves in the unenviable position of having to travel to New England and face a team that lost a game under questionable circumstances. For a whole week, people have been questioning Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and his decision to go for the first down on 4th and 2 on their own 29 yard line with less than 2 minutes left in the game rather than punting. With that said, Coach Belichick and the Patriots will come into this game motivated and look to make a statement to the rest of the NFL. Add to the fact that the Jets have lost 5 of their last 6 games and this game has blowout written all over it.

Game 5: San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Bet: San Francisco

Reasons: The Niners and Packers defense should be able to keep both offenses in check. In addition, running back Frank Gore will be featured throughout the game as I expect the Niners to not want to get Alex Smith in too many 3rd and long situations considering his propensity to give up the turnover and Green Bay's aggressive defensive schemes.

IN SUM

Giants (-6.5)

Jaguars (-9.5)

Ravens (+3.5)

Patriots (-10.5)

Niners (+6.5)

NFL Record: 0-0

November 20 - NBA

So, I went 1-2 on last night's slate of games. Hopefully we'll rebound tonight and go 3-0. Here be the picks!

Game 1: Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors (-2.5)

Bet: Toronto by 3

Reasons: Toronto comes home after a lengthy road trip out west. They always play their best games at home and considering the spread, I treat it as a pickem game. With that said, I think Toronto wins outright with a strong performance by Bargnani who will force Jermaine O'Neal to defend him out on the perimeter.

Game 2: Washington Wizards vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-6.5)

Bet: Washington

Reasons: Washington struggles on the road (1-4) but the addition of Antwan Jamison back in the lineup really helps. I dont think Washington wins this game, but I do believe that they keep the game close and dont allow the Thunder to cover the 7 point spread.

Game 3: Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics (-6)

Bet: Boston by 7

Reasons: The big match up for me to watch tonight will be at point guard. The Magic will gravely miss the presence of Jameer Nelson on both ends of the court and Boston point guard, Rajon Rondo, should have a big, stat sheet-filled game. This is the type of game that Boston seems to thrive in where they're met with a stiff test and play the perfect game on offense and (especially) on defense.

IN SUM

Toronto (-2.5)

Washington (+6.5)

Boston (-6)

November Record: 3-3

Season Record: 3-3

November 19 - NBA

Went 2-1 for the first day, so Im pleased with the results. Wouldve been 3-0 if it werent for the Pacers putting up an egg in the 2nd half of their game, but those are the ropes. Anyways, 3 games on the slide tonight in the NBA, so lets make them picks!

Game 1: Phoenix Suns (-7.5) vs. New Orleans Hornets

Bet: Phoenix by 8

Reasons: New Orleans are a game in since firing Byron Scott. They have a stiff test tonight in the Suns who are 6-2 on the road. They played each other less than a week ago in Phoenix with the Suns winning by 20 points. I expect a similar result tonight as the Hornets just dont have enough ponies to run with the Suns

Game 2 : Utah Jazz vs. San Antonio Spurs (-5)

Bet: Spurs by 6

Reasons: Two teams that have played last night, play tonight in San Antonio. The Spurs are a tough team at home (4-1) and didnt travel all too far away for their game last night was in Dallas. The game should be close until the end where I see San An taking the lead for good.

Game 3: Chicago Bulls vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-9.5)

Bet: LA by 10

Reasons: Chicago comes into LA on a 2 game winning streak, but tonight their backs are against the wall in LA. The Lakers at home have been lights out (6-2 record), and being on primetime should bring out the best of the Lakers on both ends of the court. A 10 point cover is more than enough for me - I expect the Lakers to win this one comfortably by 13, 14 points.

IN SUM

Phoenix (-7.5)

San Antonio (-5)

Los Lakers (-9.5)

November Record: 2-1

NBA Season Record: 2-1

(note: records are against the spread)

NBA - November 18th

(Lines taken from PartyBet.com)

Game 1: New York Knicks (+6.5) at Indiana Pacers (-6.5)

Bet: Indiana by 7

Reasons: Indiana and New York have played each other beforehand and Indiana came away with the victory on the road 101-89 (on November 4). Although the Pacers are coming from the road after a game in New Jersey, they are coming off a win, and right now, the Knicks just arent all that good.

Game 2: Toronto Raptors (+8.5) at Utah Jazz (-8.5)

Bet: Utah by 9

Reasons: Utah has been off since Saturday and the 4 days rest will help them against a tired Raptors squad who have come off a loss to the Denver Nuggets last night (130-112). They'll have to continue to deal with the thin air of Salt Lake City and the Raptors have historically been a team that has performed poorly on their West Coast road trips. Dont take the points, take the Jazz.

Game 3: New Jersey Nets (+9.5) at Milwaukee Bucks (-9.5)

Bet: Milwaukee by 10

Reasons: The Nets are a complete mess right now, not having won a game so far this season. They lack a consistent scoring threat (in the last 5 games, they have averaged less than 80 points). They're on the 2nd game of a back-to-back and going into Milwaukee, who have been one of the league's more pleasant surprises. Expect the Bucks to score in excess of 95 points, and thus, more than covering the spread.

IN SUM:

Picks:

Pacers (-6.5)

Jazz (-8.5)

Bucks (-9.5)

November Record : 0-0-0

Season Record: 0-0-0

New Direction....sorta...

Sorry havent been updating this blog too often - been sidetracked by other things in life. However, I will be back doing daily blogs - but with a certain twist. As of today, I will start to post bets on 3 games selected that I believe will be winners based on a betting spread. For those who do not know what a spread is, refer below:

(Taken directly from Wikipedia)

Spread betting is any of various types of wagering on the outcome of an event, where the pay-off is based on the accuracy of the wager, rather than a simple "win or lose" outcome...A spread is a range of outcomes, and the bet is whether the outcome will be above or below the spread.

So, as an example, say we were going to bet on a game in the National Basketball Association involving the Los Angeles Lakers (2008-09 NBA Champs) and the Los Angeles Clippers (worst team in the league). Rather than putting up money as to who would win the game straight up (with most people betting that the Lakers would win), sportsbooks will put up a SPREAD as to the amount of points one team has to beat the other by in order for it to be considered a "win" on the gambling side.

- Take note, betting lines are often written out as fractions in order to prevent draws (this is because

teams in the NBA cannot score 1/2 or 0.5 points).

- So, lets look at an example of a betting line, taken from the popular online sportsbook PartyBet.com:

(again note, on PartyBet, instead of using a "spread" they use a "handicap" - same concept, different

terminology)

Taken from November 18, 2009: CHA Bobcats v PHI 76ers +3/-3

- Here, the spread means that the Philadelphia 76ers are required to defeat the Charlotte

Bobcats by 3 points to be considered a win. Any other scenario resulting in the 76ers not

winning by more than 3 points results in a win for anyone who bet for the Charlotte Bobcats.

- Note here, a tie can result if the 76ers win by exactly 3 points, in which case you

win nor lose.

Although I will not actually use money in these scenarios, my hope is that by posting this blog over the course of the year, I'll see whether or not I could have made money in the long haul. As well, I'll find out where my strengths lie in terms of sports analysis (whether it be soccer, football, baseball, or basketball....MMA and boxing will be considered when big events come to the fold).

By making 3 bets, (each of which will be valued equally, meaning I would theoretically put the same amount of money on each bet), I'll either win or lose that day, for the most part. I'll keep a running tally of my record throughout the year, and will post a monthly spreadsheet that will show the results of the month - so theres no hiding in whether Im a total tool or a prognosticating god.

Yea, this was longer than I would have hoped for...ah well....let the games begin!