UFC 109

Yes yes, making a return to daily blogs on the world of sports. I'll have my NBA picks up later today, but until then, I guess I'll put up my picks for this weekends UFC event, UFC 109 - Alzheimer's.....I mean, Relentless (heh, yeah I didnt think it was that funny either...)

Just gonna focus on the main card, winners in bold:

• Light Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman
• Middleweight bout: Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen
• Welterweight bout: Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago
• Middleweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller
• Welterweight bout: Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg

In the Couture/Coleman fight, I really dont see this being too difficult a fight for Randy to handle. Coleman's only real shot at beating Randy is by getting this fight to the ground, something that Brock Lesnar could not do in his fight with The Natural. Ultimately, I think Randy grinds out a victory against Coleman via dirty boxing in the clinch. I would not be surprised if the fight is stopped in the 2nd or 3rd after Couture gets Coleman to the ground via the clinch.

In the Marquardt/Sonnen fight, I like Nate to win the fight either by decision or stoppage. As good as Chael is in his wrestling, Nate dwarfs him in every other part of the fight game. Not only that, but the advantage that Chael has in terms of his wrestling isnt all that much considering Nate's camp has him training against some of the best wrestlers in MMA period (Georges St. Pierre and Rashad Evans coming to mind). In the end, I just think Nate's overall MMA ability will help him find a way to victory against Sonnen who is still a relatively one-dimension fighter.

In the Swick/Thiago fight, its a difficult fight to judge. Swick is coming off a loss to Dan Hardy and is looking to rebound against one of the rising stars in the division in Thiago. Problem is Thiago is that outside of his flash-KO win over Josh Koscheck, he really hasnt fought notable names that people can use to gauge for this fight. He was impressive in his loss to Jon Fitch, but at the same time a loss is a loss. Ultimately however, I do thing Thiago comes away with a win against Swick. I see Thiago looking to close the distance in order to secure a takedown where in he can use his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to his advantage. Either a decision win or a submission for Thiago here imo.

In the Maia/Miller fight, you have to expect a good ground game clinic by both fighters here considering both hold a base in grappling. Granted, we may see the complete opposite in this fight with both fighters keeping the fight on the feet as their grappling may cancel each other out. At the end of the day however, I do see this fight ending up in the ground, and as good a grappler as Miller is, Maia is on a world class level. Only way I see Dan Miller winning is via control in top position for 3 rounds - a very difficult endeavor against any BJJ black belt, let alone Demian Maia. I have Maia via sub.

Finally in the Serra/Trigg fight, I like Serra to take it. I see Serra taking the center of the ring away from Trigg and loading up his hands all night. Problem for Trigg is that his strengths lie in grinding out wins on the ground and using his wrestling. A strategy like that against Matt Serra however is only asking for trouble considering Serra's expertise in BJJ. In the end, I expect Serra to win via a decision or possibly with a sub after rocking Trigg with a loaded hand and then taking his back while he tries to recover from the shot.

As for the undercard fights, I wont run down all of them, but I will give some random opinions on who may be good underdogs to pick:

I think Nover is a good even money bet against Rob Emerson. Emerson is coming off 2 losses and although Nover is returning to the ring after not being able to fight Sam Stout at UFN 19 after a fainting episode, I do expect Nover to take the fight to the ground where he holds a significant advantage over his opponent. In fact, Im a little shocked to see Emerson as the favorite going into the fight. In any event, Nover via sub.

As well, I think Brian Stann may be a very good underdog pick if youre really looking to lay money down on a big dog. Stann fights Paul Davis - a world champion grappler with great credentials in freestyle wrestling. However, he is still a little inexperienced in terms of his exposure to MMA plus he fights someone in Stann who can win the fight with one punch. Either this fight ends early because of Stann's power or it ends via a sub by Davis whenever he takes the fight to the ground.

So there be my picks. I'll try and post my thoughts on the event sometime next week. Til then, its THA signing off. PEACE!